{"id":145,"date":"2007-03-01T00:06:00","date_gmt":"2007-02-28T16:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/20070301\/it-outlook-by-paul-kedosky.html"},"modified":"2007-03-01T00:20:39","modified_gmt":"2007-02-28T16:20:39","slug":"it-outlook-by-paul-kedosky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/20070301\/it-outlook-by-paul-kedosky.html","title":{"rendered":"\u4e00\u4e2aVC\u773c\u4e2d\u7684 IT \u884c\u4e1a\u8d8b\u52bf"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e00\u4e2aVC\uff08\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u5bb6\uff09\u773c\u4e2d\u7684 IT \u884c\u4e1a\u8d8b\u52bf<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p><strong>The Future of the Future, &amp; the IT Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/pkedrosky\/the-future-of-the-future\/\">\u5728\u7ebf\u89c2\u770b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/gofull\/26768\/1\">\u5168\u7a97\u53e3\u6a21\u5f0f\u89c2\u770b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.kedrosky.com\/docs\/bio.htm\">\u5173\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005 Paul Kedrosky<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/paul.kedrosky.com\/archives\/2007\/02\/27\/the_future_of_t_1.html\">Paul Kedosky \u7684Blog\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5e16\u5b50<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u5f20slide\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c5\u5f20<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"466\" width=\"578\" alt=\"Gartner-2007-Overview\" title=\"Gartner-2007-Overview\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/stuff\/pics\/2007-02-28\/5-gartner-2007-overview.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u7406\u89e3\u4e0a\u56fe\u662f <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gartner.com\/\">Gartner<\/a> \u8ba4\u4e3a\u76842007\u6280\u672f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u7c97\u4f53\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u7eff\u8272Mainstream\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u8f83\u6210\u719f\u3001\u5df2\u7ecf\u6216\u8005\u5373\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u6a59\u8272Long-Range Trends\u662f\u66f4\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c7\u5f20<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"466\" width=\"578\" alt=\"consumer-tech-ipod\" title=\"consumer-tech-ipod\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/stuff\/pics\/2007-02-28\/7-consumer-tech-ipod.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u662f\u8bf4\u9762\u5411\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u6280\u672f\u4ea7\u54c1\uff08Consumer Electronics\uff09\u7684\u5a01\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5Apple iPod\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5f53\u5e74\u7684Walkman\u662f\u82b1\u4e86<strong>\u5341\u5e74<\/strong>\u624d\u5f97\u5230\u8ddf\u4eca\u5929\u7684iPod\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u9500\u91cf\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c9\u5f20<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"466\" width=\"578\" alt=\"Open Source\" title=\"Open Source\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/stuff\/pics\/2007-02-28\/9-open-source.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u662f\u8bf4\u5f00\u6e90\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u7ec6\u5206\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u6709\u6240\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u53f3\u8fb9\u7684\u6210\u719f\u5ea6\u66f4\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u56db\u661f\u3001\u4e94\u661f\u7684\u6210\u719f\u5ea6\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u4ea7\u54c1\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u5f88\u4e3b\u6d41\u3001\u5f88\u666e\u904d\u7684\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4e8c\u3001\u4e09\u661f\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u8fd8\u662f\u5546\u4e1a\u5c01\u95ed\u5f0f\u8f6f\u4ef6\u548c\u5f00\u6e90\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6b63\u5728\u6fc0\u70c8\u53ae\u6740\u7684\u7586\u573a\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u4e8c\u4e09\u661f\u7684\u6210\u719f\u5ea6\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u5f88\u5feb\u4e5f\u80fd\u5230\u8fbe\u56db\u661f\u7684\u6210\u719f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c13\u5f20<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"466\" width=\"578\" alt=\"Surprised-in-the-enterprise\" title=\"Surprised-in-the-enterprise\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/stuff\/pics\/2007-02-28\/13-surprised-in-the-enterprise.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5f20\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u95ee\u7684\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u54ea\u79cd\u9500\u552e\u6e20\u9053\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u79cd\u6700\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\uff08\u4e5f\u4ee4\u6211\u60ca\u8bb6\uff09\uff0c\u5c45\u7136\u662f\u6700\u666e\u901a\u7684\uff08\u770b\u6765\u88ab\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u91cc\u9762\uff0c91%\u90fd\u6709\u516c\u53f8\u7f51\u7ad9\uff09\u3001\u6700\u4e0d\u8d77\u773c\u7684&#8211;\u516c\u53f8\u7f51\u7ad9&#8211;\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u5b9e\u8bdd\uff0c\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u89c9\u5f97\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2avendor\u516c\u53f8\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u6295\u5165\u5e94\u8be5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e00\u822c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u8fd0\u884c\u7ef4\u62a4\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u5c45\u7136\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u6548\u679c\u5374\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\uff08\u6f5c\u5728\u5ba2\u6237\uff09\u5f00\u59cb\u4e60\u60ef\u4e8e\u5728\u7f51\u4e0a\u641c\u7d22\u5bfb\u627e\u4ed6\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\u63a8\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u5bf9\u4e8evendor\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u91cd\u89c6\u516c\u53f8\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53ca\u65f6\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c15\u5f20<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"466\" width=\"578\" alt=\"Slow E2.0\" title=\"Slow E2.0\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/stuff\/pics\/2007-02-28\/15-slow-e20.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5f20\u7684\u6807\u9898\u662f Slow E2.0\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f5c\u8005\u672c\u610fE2.0\u7f29\u5199\u662f\u6307\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u731c\u6d4b\u5927\u6982\u662f Slow Enterprise 2.0 \u7684\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u6307\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ea7\u9886\u57df\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u8fd8\u6bd4\u8f83\u6162\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u5f00\u59cb\u90e8\u5c5e\u4f7f\u7528\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591a\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u5f97\u5230\u90e8\u5c5e\u6700\u591a\u7684\uff0847% deloyed\uff09\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f Team Collaboration Tools\uff0c\u800c\u70ed\u706b\u671d\u5929\u7684Blogs\u3001RSS\u3001Social networking\u3001Wiki\u7b49\u7b49\uff0cdeployed\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc720%. \u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c16\u5f20<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"466\" width=\"578\" alt=\"Mobile\" title=\"Mobile\" src=\"http:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/stuff\/pics\/2007-02-28\/16-mobile.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5f20\u662f\u8bf4\u65e0\u7ebf\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7528\u6237\u7684\u6570\u76ee\u5728\u63a5\u8fd12010\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u4faf\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u6709\u7ebf\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7528\u6237\u7684\u6570\u76ee\u3002Web-enabled cars \u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u5230\u5904\u8dd1\u52a8\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u4e5f\u80fd\u4e0a\u7f51\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9slides\u91cc\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684 <strong>Sensors &amp; Ubiquitous Computing<\/strong> \u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u592a\u4e86\u89e3\uff1b\u6211\u4f30\u8ba1Radio Frequency IDentification (<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/RFID\">RFID<\/a>)\u5e94\u8be5\u7b97\u8fd9\u5757\u7684\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Over.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e00\u4e2aVC\uff08\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u5bb6\uff09\u773c\u4e2d\u7684 IT \u884c\u4e1a\u8d8b\u52bf The Future of the Future, &amp; the IT Outlook \u5728\u7ebf\u89c2\u770b \u5168\u7a97\u53e3\u6a21\u5f0f\u89c2\u770b \u5173\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005 Paul Kedrosky Paul Kedosky \u7684Blog\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5e16\u5b50 \u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u5f20slide\uff1a \u7b2c5\u5f20 \u6211\u7406\u89e3\u4e0a\u56fe\u662f Gartner \u8ba4\u4e3a\u76842007\u6280\u672f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u7c97\u4f53\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u7eff\u8272Mainstream\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u8f83\u6210\u719f\u3001\u5df2\u7ecf\u6216\u8005\u5373\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u6a59\u8272Long-Range Trends\u662f\u66f4\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-all","category-it-telecom-industry"],"views":10326,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fengdingcn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}